April 3, 2016 The Week Ahead

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The S&P 500 finished the week off on year-to-date highs. That’s more than 250 points higher than the February 11 lows. Even more impressive, the Nasdaq is up more than 14% from those February 11 lows.

The VIX closed the week at 13.10. These are clearly the lowest levels of the year. The belief is that the Fed may not be in a rush to raise interest rates, given global uncertainty. We should get a clearer picture after the FOMC minutes are released.

Crude oil finished the week lower, dislocating from equities, as they dropped more than 5% on the week. A couple weeks ago they were trading above $40 per barrel, however; they’re currently trading around $36.40.

Here’s what’s on tap for this week coming up…

Key Economic Data:
5 April 2016- International Trade in Goods 8:30 AM ET
6 April 2016- EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 AM ET, FOMC Minutes 2:00 PM ET
7 April 2016- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
5 April 2016- WBA, DRI
6 April 2016- GPN, MON, STZ, APOG, APOL, BBBY
7 April 2016- CAG, KMX, RAD

Key Events:
5 April 2016- 2016 Healthcare Back-to-Basics Forum, 2016 MRO Americas Conference (runs till 4/7)
7 April 2016- Cowen 2nd Annual Retail & Luxury Day

March 29, 2016 Market Wrap Up

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The market was on an absolute tear following comments out of Fed Chair Yellen this afternoon. More or less, she gave off the impression that there will be no upcoming rate hike at the April meeting. Of course, this was the signal for lift off. The SPY finished the day 1% higher, IWM closed nearly 3% higher, and the QQQ closed 1.5% higher.

The appetite for risk is back on, as witnessed in the VIX. The VIX closed down nearly 10%, below 14 at 13.82.

One sector which did not participate in the rally was Crude Oil. It was down more than 2%. This now makes for five straight losing days.

On the options front, we saw large call buying activity in TiVo (TIVO). In addition, we saw heavy put buying in Arctic Cat (ACAT), which was 14.2 times usual options volume.

Stocks in play included: Himax Technologies (HIMX) +16.3%, Conns (CONN) -24.6%, and Puma Biotechnology (PBYI) -20.8%

Here’s what’s on tap for the rest of the week:

Key Economic Data:
30 March 2016- EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 AM ET
31 March 2016- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
1 April 2016- Employment Situation 8:30 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index 10:00 AM ET

Key Earnings:
30 March 2016- MU, PAYX
31 March 2016- SONS
1 April 2016- BBRY

March 27, 2016 The Week Ahead

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The S&P 500 finished the week slightly lower, however; continues to show resilience against a number of negative headlines. GDP numbers on Friday were taken well. This may induce some fear of an upcoming rate hike at the next FOMC meeting. Traders will be listening to FED members and their rhetoric as the date approaches.

The VIX is trading below 15, an indication that the market doesn’t have a whole lot of fear at the moment. Of course, it’s generally when we experience complacency, when we start to see volatility pick up. Are we there yet? We’ll just have to wait and see, but there isn’t much on the schedule in terms of earnings and economic events.

Crude oil finished the week relatively flat, however; it’s down about 5% over the last three trading sessions. Nonetheless, a very impressive move over the last month and a half, from mid 20s to near 40s.

Here’s what’s on tap for this week coming up, and Happy Easter from all of us at TVC.

Key Economic Data:
28 March 2016- International Trade in Goods 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 AM ET
30 March 2016- EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 AM ET
31 March 2016- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
1 April 2016- Employment Situation 8:30 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index 10:00 AM ET

Key Earnings:
29 March 2016- LEN, PLAY
30 March 2016- MU, PAYX
31 March 2016- SONS
1 April 2016- BBRY

March 24, 2016 Market Wrap Up

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The market bounced back from earlier lows to close nearly flat today. Of course, it was done relatively low volume, but still a nice recovery to close out the week.

The VIX traded higher for a good portion of the day, however; as the market rallied, the VIX fizzled, closing the day lower at 14.72.

Crude oil has recently come under pressure after a massive spike in prices over the last month. Prices dropped more than 4% yesterday and were weak to start the US trading session, however; they also bounced back to close nearly flat. With that said, they’re still below $40.

On the options front, we saw large call buying activity in Six Flags (SIX). In addition, we saw heavy put buying in Xilinx (XLNX), which was 4.9 times usual options volume.

Stocks in play included: Pandora (P) +15.6%, Office Depot (ODP) +9.3%, and Portola Pharmaceuticals (PTLA) -29%

The markets will be closed for Good Friday tomorrow.

Key Economic Data:
25 March 2016- GDP 8:30 AM ET

March 22, 2016 Market Wrap Up

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The market was relatively unfazed today, despite seeing the futures trade lower in the pre-market. News came out early in the morning that several people were killed (and many injured) following a terrorist attack in Belgium.

The ability to shrug of any or all bad news has been going on for over a month now. Not only that, but the VIX is sitting comfortably below 14.25.

Crude oil closed lower, however; it traded in a relatively tight trading range. Crude oil is trading above $41 per barrel, near its year-to-date highs.

On the options front, we saw large call buying activity in Arris International (ARRS). In addition, we saw heavy put buying in Myriad Genetics, which was 17.7 times usual options volume.

Stocks in play included: Lumber Liquidators (LL) +15.6%, Community Health Systems (CYH) +6.6%, and Dean Foods Company (DF) -9.7%

We’ve got two more trading days left this week, here’s what’s going on:

Key Economic Data:
23 March 2016- New Home Sales 10:00 AM ET, EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 AM ET
24 March 2016- Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
25 March 2016- GDP 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
23 March 2016- FRAN, GIS, KBH, PVH, RH
24 March 2016- TFM, GME, ACN, FINL, SIG

Key Conferences:
21 March 2016- Howard Weil Energy Conference (runs till 3/23)
22 March 2016- Telsey Advisory Conference (runs till 3/23)

March 20, 2016 The Week Ahead

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The S&P 500 finished the week on it’s year-to-date highs. An impressive +13% run up from the February 11 lows. A pretty fast transition from panic selling to now almost panic buying. With that said, the VIX closed barely above 14, as we head into a shortened week of trading.

The markets will be closed on Friday, giving many reason to believe that we might continue to see this low volume rally continue.

Even more impressive, has been the run up in crude oil prices. It was another strong week of gains as we eclipsed $40 per barrel. We’re also sitting close to the 2016 highs in crude oil.

Another commodity that is near yearly highs is gold, with cash gold closing the week at 1255.04.

The market is anticipating low volatility, but here are some events to look out for:

Key Economic Data:
21 March 2016- Existing Home Sales 10:00 AM ET
23 March 2016- New Home Sales 10:00 AM ET, EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 AM ET
24 March 2016- Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
25 March 2016- GDP 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
21 March 2016- MFRM
22 March 2016- FIVE, NKE, RHT, SCS, XONE
23 March 2016- FRAN, GIS, KBH, PVH, RH
24 March 2016- TFM, GME, ACN, FINL, SIG

Key Conferences:
21 March 2016- Apple Product Event Launch, Howard Weil Energy Conference (runs till 3/23)
22 March 2016- Telsey Advisory Conference (runs till 3/23)

March 17, 2016 Market Wrap Up

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The phenomenal run in the stock market continued again today, as the S&P 500 flirted with going positive on the year. With that said, we’re now more than 12.5% higher than our year-to-date lows. It’s also worth noting that this run up has been done on below average volume.

Not to be overshadowed, crude oil is up more than 10% over the last two trading days. We’re now trading above $40 per barrel. That’s a move of more than 35% higher than our monthly lows.

The VIX closed 14.44, the lowest level we’ve seen in 2016.

On the options front, we saw large call buying activity in Sensata Technologies (ST). In addition, we saw heavy put buying in Nevro Corporation (NVRO), which was 3.2 times usual options volume.

Stocks in play included: Mallinckrodt (MNK) -4%, Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) -11.4%, and FedEX (FDX) +11.8%

There are no major economic announcements or key events tomorrow, outside of some rebalances that will happen at the close.

March 15, 2016 Market Wrap Up

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It was a rather dull day in the equity markets, as traders await the FOMC announcement tomorrow. The S&P 500 is down less than half of a percent over the last two trading days.

The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) had a low of 201.05, a high of 202.07, closing relatively flat at 199.54.

Oil traded lower, the United States Oil Fund (USO) closed the day at 9.75, down about 1.2%

The VIX closed above 17, down less than half of a percent at 16.84.

On the options front, we saw large call buying activity in Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PCG). In addition, we saw heavy put buying in Navient Corporation (NAVI), which was 16.2 times usual options volume.

Stocks in play included: Mallinckrodt (MNK) -15.5%, Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) -51%, and Mead Johnson Nutrition Company (MJN) +11%

Here’s what’s on tap for tomorrow and the rest of the week.

Key Economic Data:
16 March 2016- CPI 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts 8:30 AM ET, Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET, EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET, FOMC Meeting Announcement 2:00 PM ET, Fed Chair Press Conference 2:30 PM ET
17 March 2016- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET, Philly Fed Survey 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
16 March 2016- CTRP, FDX, GES, JBL
17 March 2016- ADBE, ARO, LE, MIK

Key Conferences:
14 March 2016- Citigroup CEO Conference (runs till 3/16)
15 March 2016- Bank of America Global Industrials and Autos Conference (runs till 3/18), Barclays Global Healthcare Conference (runs till 3/17)

March 13, 2016 The Week Ahead

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The S&P 500 finished the week higher by about 1%. Not only that, but it’s been up 8 out of the last 10 trading days. It is worth noting that it was a relatively slow week in terms of earnings and domestic economic headlines.

We did get some fireworks out of the ECB, as the announced plans of further QE. Thus far, the market has reacted positively towards this news.

Several things are clicking right now. For example, crude oil prices surged another 7% this week, closing in on $40 per barrel and sitting on 3 month highs.

The VIX is near yearly lows, at 16.50 and now lower overall year-to-date.

We’ve got a jam packed schedule, including the FOMC announcement. In addition, earnings out of Federal Express and Oracle to name a few.

Below you’ll find out what else is on tap:

Key Economic Data:
15 March 2016- PPI 8:30 AM ET, Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET
16 March 2016- CPI 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts 8:30 AM ET, Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET, EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET, FOMC Meeting Announcement 2:00 PM ET, Fed Chair Press Conference 2:30 PM ET
17 March 2016- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET, Philly Fed Survey 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
15 March 2016- DDD, DSW, VRX, ORCL, TERP, QIWI
16 March 2016- CTRP, FDX, GES, JBL
17 March 2016- ADBE, ARO, LE, MIK

Key Conferences:
14 March 2016- Citigroup CEO Conference (runs till 3/16)
15 March 2016- Bank of America Global Industrials and Autos Conference (runs till 3/18), Barclays Global Healthcare Conference (runs till 3/17)

March 10, 2016 Market Wrap Up

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We had an extremely volatile day in the markets today. Things really got interesting after the ECB announced that they would be doing more in the form of QE to try to stimulate the economy. With that said, the DAX got hit with a 2.3% drop.

The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) had a low of 197.38, a high of 201.07, closing relatively flat at 199.54.

Oil was relatively flat. The United States Oil Fund (USO) closed the day at 10.04.

The VIX closed above 18, down 1.58% on the day.

On the options front, we saw large call buying activity in PHH Corporation (PHH). In addition, we saw heavy put buying in Rackspace Hosting (RAX), which was 2.1 times usual options volume.

Stocks in play included: J2 Global (JCOM) -19.5%, Barrett Business Services (BBSI) -35%, and Williams Companies (WMB) -8.3%

There are no key events on the schedule tomorrow.