June 27, 2016 The Week Ahead

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The S&P 500 was under attack on Friday after a surprise vote out of Britain as they chose to leave the EU. Going into Friday, the option market was implying a 1.6%, however; The S&P 500 sold off more than 3.59%, which demonstrates how much traders underestimated the risk. Overall, the S&P 500 finished the week down 1.57%.

It appears that there are fears that other EU countries might follow in the footsteps as the Brits. With that said, traders were flocking towards safe havens like Gold and Treasury Bonds. Gold futures rose to their highest levels in 2 years, as they surged more than $55 and closed above 1315. In addition, The iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bond (ETF) gained more than 3.5 pts as it closed at 135.78, a move of 2.68%.

The VIX on Friday closed at 25.76, a massive jump of more than 8 points, a gain of nearly 50%.

The United States Oil Fund (USO) was also a victim of the Brexit vote, as it sold off nearly 5% on Friday, closing at 11.40.

Here is what is on tap for this upcoming week:

Key Economic Data:
27 June 2016- International Trade in Goods 8:30 AM ET
28 June 2016- GDP 8:30 AM ET
29 June 2016- Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 AM ET, EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
30 June 2016- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
01 July 2016- ISM Mfg Index 10:00 AM ET

Key Earnings:
28 June 2016- NKE, CAMP, CCL, FDS
29 June 2016- GIS, MON, PIR
30 June 2016- CAG, DRI, LNN, STZ, MU, MKC

Key Events:
27 June 2016- JPMorgan Inaugural Energy Conference (runs till 6/28)
28 June 2016- JPMorgan Media & Telecoms CEO Conference (runs till 6/29)

June 12, 2016 The Week Ahead

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The S&P 500 closed the week relatively flat, however; earlier gains in the week were erased over the last two trading sessions as the S&P 500 lost more than 1%. With that said, volume was generally weak as the market awaits a week laced with heavy data. Most importantly, the FOMC announcement on Wednesday.

It’s expected that given the last jobs report, the Fed will not make any changes. However, market participants will be close attention to the language used as well the upcoming forecasts.

The VIX on Friday closed at 17.03, a massive jump from last Friday, indicating that traders are more uncertain how the market will react to the upcoming data.

Crude oil futures traded above $50 for three straight days this week but sold off over 4% the last two trading sessions to close a tad above $49 per barrel.

Here is what is on tap for this upcoming week:

Key Economic Data:
14 June 2016- Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET
15 June 2016- PPI 8:30 AM ET, Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET, EIA Petroleum Status 10:30 AM ET, FOMC Meeting Announcement 2:00 PM ET, FOMC Forecasts 2:00 PM ET, Fed Chair Press Conference 2:30 PM ET
16 June 2016- Consumer Price Index 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET, Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey 8:30 AM ET
17 June 2016- Housing Starts 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
14 June 2016- BOBE, LAKE
15 June 2016- JBL
16 June 2016- KR, FNSR

Key Events:
13 June 2016- Apple Worldwide Developers Conference (runs till 6/17); JPMorgan Global China Summit (runs till 6/15), Stifel Industrials Conference
14 June 2016- Citigroup Industrials Conference (runs till 6/15); Credit Suisse Semi Supply Chain Conference (runs till 6/15); Morgan Stanley Financial Services Conference (runs till 6/15); Piper Consumer Conference (runs till 6/15); RBC Global Mining & Materials Conference (runs till 6/15); Wells Fargo Food/Retail Symposium (runs till 6/15); William Blair 36th Annual Growth Stock Conference (runs till 6/16)

June 9, 2016 Market Wrap Up

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The S&P 500 closed slightly lower on below average trading volume. It appears the market is on vacation this week as we await heavy economic data next week. Most importantly, the FOMC meeting that is scheduled for June 15.

Stocks in play today include: The Hershey Company (HSY) +3.5%, H&R Block Financial (HRB) +8.8%, and Tesla Motors (TSLA) -3.83%.

Despite the anemic volume, the VIX actually grinded up, closing at 14.64.

Crude oil futures closed above $50 per barrel for the 3rd straight trading day. We’ve made 23 new highs over the last 6-months to just give you an idea of the run we’ve had.

On the options front, we saw large call buying activity in the Hershey Company (HSY), which traded 36.7 times normal volume. We also saw a ton of bearish bets being placed in Urban Outfitters Inc, which traded 2.7 times usual volume.

Here’s what’s left for the rest of the week:

Key Economic Data:
9 June 2016- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
9 June 2016- SJM, MFRM, HRB

Key Events:
Bank America Global Telecom & Media Conference (runs till 6/9)
Goldman Healthcare Conference (runs till 6/9)
Jefferies Healthcare Conference (runs till 6/10)
Credit Suisse Global Energy Conference (runs till 6/9)
Deutsche Bank 7th Annual Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference (runs till 6/9)

June 7, 2016 Market Wrap Up

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The S&P 500 closed the day on the plus side, as we inch ever closer to all-time highs. We’re now just less than 1% from matching the all-time highs. With that said, SPDR S&P 500 experienced below average volume…not exactly, a strong sign of momentum as we grind higher.

Stocks in play today: Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) -14.5%, Ralph Lauren (RL) -3%, F5 Networks (FFIV) +12.8%, and Marathon Oil (MRO) +4.5%.

Despite the grind up, the VIX actually traded higher, closing above 14, at 14.05.

Crude oil futures are now trading above $50 per barrel and sitting on 6-month highs. With that said, they are now more than 90% higher from the 6-month lows.

On the options front, we saw large call buying activity in Red Hat (RHT), which traded 7 times normal volume. We also saw a ton of bearish bets being placed in JD.com (JD), which traded 3.4 times usual volume.

Here’s what’s left for the rest of the week:

Key Economic Data:
8 June 2016- EIA Petroleum Status 10:30 AM ET
9 June 2016- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
7 June 2016- MIK, VNCE, VRX, PAY, PLAY, VRNT
8 June 2016- TLRD, RH
9 June 2016- SJM, MFRM, HRB

Key Events:
7 June 2016- Stifel Tech, Internet, and Media Conference (runs till 6/8); Bank America Global Telecom & Media Conference (runs till 6/9); Goldman Healthcare Conference (runs till 6/9); Jefferies Healthcare Conference (runs till 6/10)
8 June 2016- Credit Suisse Global Energy Conference (runs till 6/9); Deutsche Bank 7th Annual Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference (runs till 6/9)

June 5, 2016 The Week Ahead

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The S&P 500 closed the week relatively flat, however; things got real interesting on Friday after a much weaker than expected jobs number. In fact, it was on of the worst numbers in years. With that said, many market participants now believe that the economy is too weak for the Fed to raise interest rates in June. This caused the market to sell off initially on Friday, but it managed to bounce back to modest losses.

The VIX on Friday hit a high of 14.66 only to see it sell off at the end of the day. The VIX was little changed for the week, closing at 13.47.

The OPEC meeting turned out to be a non-event. With that said, crude oil futures prices didn’t move much during the week. Currently, prices are 86% higher from their six month lows. As we stand, we’re a tad under $49.

Here is what is on tap for this upcoming week:

Key Economic Data:
8 June 2016- EIA Petroleum Status 10:30 AM ET
9 June 2016- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
6 June 2016- UNFI, THO, SIGM
7 June 2016- MIK, VNCE, VRX, PAY, PLAY, VRNT
8 June 2016- TLRD, RH
9 June 2016- SJM, MFRM, HRB

Key Events:
6 June 2016- Goldman Lodging, Gaming, Restaurant and Leisure Conference (runs till 6/7); Stifel Tech, Internet, and Media Conference (runs till 6/8)
7 June 2016- Bank America Global Telecom & Media Conference (runs till 6/9); Goldman Healthcare Conference (runs till 6/9); Jefferies Healthcare Conference (runs till 6/10); JP Morgan Auto Conference (runs till 6/7)
8 June 2016- Credit Suisse Global Energy Conference (runs till 6/9); Deutsche Bank 7th Annual Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference (runs till 6/9)

June 1, 2016 Market Wrap Up

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The S&P 500 started the new month on a positive note, however; volume was well below the average. With that said, it’s not the greatest sign, when we’re moving towards all-time highs without any follow through in volume.

Stocks in play today: Nike (NKE) -.5%, Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) +8%, Ocean Power Technologies (OPTT) +285%, Hollyfrontier (HFC) +5%

Given the weak volume and lack of downward follow through pressure…the VIX didn’t do too much, closing at 14.20.

The United States Oil Fund (USO) was down less than .25% today. Crude oil futures have been wrestling trying to break $50 per barrel. Now, they’ve been able to get their intraday, but have yet to hold on to it. Tomorrow marks an OPEC meeting as well as the EIA petroleum report.

On the options front, we saw large call buying activity in Westlake Chemical Corp (WLK), which traded 16.9 times normal volume. We also saw a ton of bearish bets being placed in Nike (NKE), which traded 3.9 times usual volume.

Here’s what’s left for tomorrow and Friday:

Key Economic Data:
2 June 2016- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET, EIA Petroleum Status 11:00 AM ET
3 June 2016- Employment Situation 8:30 AM ET, International Trade 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
2 June 2016- CIEN, CONN, JOY, AMBA, AVGO, CMTL, FIVE, IDT, ZUMZ

Key Events:
KeyBanc Industrials & Auto Conference (runs till 6/2)
Bernstein 32nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference (runs till 6/3)
Bank America Global Technology Conference (runs till 6/2)
Cowen 44th Annual Technology, Media & Telecom Conference (runs till 6/2)
DA Davidson 8th Annual Technology Forum; RBC Consumer & Retail Conference (runs till 6/2)

May 30, 2016 The Week Ahead

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The S&P 500 had a solid week of gains, moving more than 2% higher. Not only that, we’re just less than 2% off the all-time highs. Another healthy sign was the influx of IPOs. Last week, we had five IPOs, a very strong number given the lack of inactivity we’ve seen in the space thus far this year.

With volume drying up and a shortened week ahead, it was no surprise to see the VIX sell off as much as it did. With that said, the VIX on Friday closed at 13.12, a drop of more than 2 points from the previous Friday close.

Crude oil futures prices traded above $50 for a brief moment last week. An impressive feat considering it’s 88% higher from the six month lows. As we stand, we’re a tad under $50 ahead of the OPEC meeting this week.

Here is what is on tap for this shortened 4-day trading week:

Key Economic Data:
31 May 2016- Personal Income & Outlays 8:30 AM ET
1 June 2016- ISM Manufacturing Index 10:00 AM ET
2 June 2016- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET, EIA Petroleum Status 11:00 AM ET
3 June 2016- Employment Situation 8:30 AM ET, International Trade 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
31 May 2016- ASNA, NCS, TIVO, WDAY, ZOES, MDT
1 June 2016- KORS, VRA, BOX, LE
2 June 2016- CIEN, CONN, JOY, AMBA, AVGO, CMTL, FIVE, IDT, ZUMZ

Key Events:
31 May 2016- Deutsche Bank Financial Conference (runs till 6/1); KeyBanc Industrials & Auto Conference (runs till 6/2)
1 June 2016- Bernstein 32nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference (runs till 6/3); Bank America Global Technology Conference (runs till 6/2); Cowen 44th Annual Technology, Media & Telecom Conference (runs till 6/2); DA Davidson 8th Annual Technology Forum; RBC Consumer & Retail Conference (runs till 6/2)

Lastly, for those observing, have a happy and safe Memorial Day.

May 26, 2016 Market Wrap Up

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The S&P 500 was relatively flat today, as volume seems to have dried up as we near all-time highs.

Stocks in play today: Gogo (GOGO) +16.3%, Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF) +7.5%, Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) -16%, and Signet Jewelers (SIG) -10.5%

It was no surprise to see the VIX sell off as hard as it did. Many traders will be away tomorrow, as Monday is a holiday. With that said, it makes sense to see volatility come in, given not much is expected over the next few days. The VIX closed below 13.50.

The United States Oil Fund (USO) was down less than 1% today. Now, crude oil futures did hit $50 per barrel for the first time in over 6 months, but were unable to hold that level into the close.

On the options front, we saw large call buying activity in Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), which was 3.1 times normal volume. We also saw a ton of bearish bets being placed in Eagle Pharmaceuticals (EGRX).

Here’s what’s left for tomorrow:

Key Economic Data:
27 May 2016- GDP 8:30 AM ET

May 25, 2016 Market Wrap Up

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The S&P 500 continued its climb back to all-time highs; we’re now a little less than 2% off that. Not to mention, 15% higher than our 6-month lows. One could argue that this is all being done on anemic volume, however; fighting the tape can be very costly during times like this.

Stocks in play today: Alibaba Group (BABA) -7.3%, Express (EXPR) -8.4%, Whiting Petroleum (WLL) +14.5%, and Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) +26%

It was no surprise to see the VIX sell off as hard as it did. Overall, the VIX closed below 14, finishing the day 3.6% lower.

The United States Oil Fund (USO) was up nearly 2% today. In addition, crude oil futures closed at this year’s highs. We’re now nearly 50% off the 3-month lows.

On the options front, we saw large call buying activity in Craft Brew (BREW), which was 69.2 times normal volume. We also saw a ton of bearish bets being placed in Alibaba Group (BABA). Overall, the option action in Alibaba was 5.9 times above the average.

Here’s what’s left for the rest of the week:

Key Economic Data:
26 May 2016- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET
27 May 2016- GDP 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
26 May 2016- ANF, DG, FRED, GME, PANW, SPLK, ULTA, VEEV, VNET

Key Events:
Morgan Stanley China Conference (runs till 5/26)
UBS Global Oil & Gas Conference (runs till 5/26)

May 24, 2016 Market Wrap Up

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The S&P 500 was in full panic buying mode today, as the index closed 1.37% higher. The catalyst? A better question, do we really need one anymore? All jokes aside, there was no real news that pushed the Dow, S&P 500, Russell 2000, and the Nasdaq. With that said, we’re not too far off the all-time highs.

It was no surprise to see the VIX sell off as hard as it did. Overall, the VIX closed at 14.42, closing the day 8.9% lower.

The United States Oil Fund (USO) was up more than 1.37% today. In addition, crude oil futures closed at 6 month highs. We’re now more than 80% higher off the 6-month lows.

On the options front, we saw large call buying activity in Xilinx (XLNX), which was 5.2 times normal volume.

Here’s what’s left for the rest of the week:

Key Economic Data:
25 May 2016- International Trade in Goods 8:30 AM ET, EIA Petroleum Status 10:30 AM ET
26 May 2016- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET
27 May 2016- GDP 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
25 May 2016- BMO, TIF, COST, HPQ, LGF, NTAP
26 May 2016- ANF, DG, FRED, GME, PANW, SPLK, ULTA, VEEV, VNET

Key Events:
JP Morgan Technology Media & Telecom Conference (runs till 5/25); SunTrust Financial Services Conference (runs till 5/25); UBS Global Healthcare Conference (runs till 5/25)
Morgan Stanley China Conference (runs till 5/26); UBS Global Oil & Gas Conference (runs till 5/26); Wolfe Global Transportation (runs till 5/25)