February 8, 2016 Market Wrap Up

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The Chinese markets were closed today in celebration of their new year. With that said, many traders believed that volatility would come in during their holiday break. Well…that clearly wasn’t the case today. The S&P 500 sold off 1.4% and the NASDAQ was down more than 1.8%.

We continue to see weakness in Biotech, Technology, and the MLP sector. It probably doesn’t help that commodities are also weak. Most importantly, crude oil, which settled below $30 per barrel.

It’s not a real surprise to see the VIX trade above 25 today, finishing the day 11% higher and closing at 26.

On the options front, we saw large call buying activity in Penn National Gaming (PENN). In addition, we saw heavy put buying in Bloomin Brands (BLMN), about 58 times usual options volume.

Stocks in play included: Chesapeake Energy (CHK) -33%, Energy Transfer Equity (ETE), and Williams Companies (WMB) -35%.

We’ve got earnings from Coca-Cola (KO) and CVS Pharmacy (CVS) tomorrow, along with Disney (DIS). Overall, earnings have been pretty weak this quarter. Let’s see if that trend changes at all.

Here’s what’s on tap for the rest of the week:

Key Economic Data:
11 February 2016- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
12 February 2016- Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
9 February 2016- CVS, KO, MAS, VIAB, WYN, AKAM, DIS, NCR, NUAN, PNRA, WU
10 February 2016- ARMH, TWX, EXPE, IRBT, TWTR, WFM, ZNGA, MYL, LOCK, FNF
11 February 2016- AVP, BTU, BWA, CAG, GNC, K, MOS, NOK, PEP, RIO, SHPG, TAP, TIME, WWAV, AIG, ATVI, CBS, CYBR, FEYE, GRPN, INFN, P, QLIK, RSG

Key Conferences:
8 February 2016- Credit Suisse Financial Services Forum (runs till 2/10)
9 February 2016- Bank America Merrill Insurance Conference (runs till 2/11), Goldman Sachs Tech Conf (runs till 2/11), Goldman Sachs Insurance Conf (runs till 2/11)
10 February 2016- Leerink Healthcare Conference (runs till 2/11)
11 February 2016- KBW Financial Conference (runs till 2/12)

February 7, 2016 The Week Ahead

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The S&P 500 had a rough week, selling off about 3%. As the market continues to remain weak this year. The NASDAQ has hit five month lows, as some earnings come in disappointing. For example, Apple, Amazon, LinkedIn, and Microsoft have all reacted poorly to earnings.

Not to mention, we’ve seen weakness in the Asian markets, jobs data, and crude oil prices. Let’s see if we catch a break in volatility, as China prepares to celebrate their new year and closing their markets.

The VIX closed the week higher, right above 23.38.

Crude oil prices sold off this week, down nearly 8% and not too far off our most recent lows. We’re barely trading above $30 per barrel.

On the economic front, there isn’t that much on the schedule. However, there are a ton of earnings on the schedule.

Here’s what else is on tap:

Key Economic Data:
11 February 2016- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
12 February 2016- Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
8 February 2016- L, HAS, FOX, PAA, YELP
9 February 2016- CVS, KO, MAS, VIAB, WYN, AKAM, DIS, NCR, NUAN, PNRA, WU
10 February 2016- ARMH, TWX, EXPE, IRBT, TWTR, WFM, ZNGA, MYL, LOCK, FNF
11 February 2016- AVP, BTU, BWA, CAG, GNC, K, MOS, NOK, PEP, RIO, SHPG, TAP, TIME, WWAV, AIG, ATVI, CBS, CYBR, FEYE, GRPN, INFN, P, QLIK, RSG

Key Conferences:
8 February 2016- Credit Suisse Financial Services Forum (runs till 2/10)
9 February 2016- Bank America Merrill Insurance Conference (runs till 2/11), Goldman Sachs Tech Conf (runs till 2/11), Goldman Sachs Insurance Conf (runs till 2/11)
10 February 2016- Leerink Healthcare Conference (runs till 2/11)
11 February 2016- KBW Financial Conference (runs till 2/12)

October 4, 2015 The Week Ahead

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October 4, 2015 The Week Ahead

The S&P 500 ended the week higher, making it four straight days after seeing a full week of selling, last week.

With that said, the VIX closed above 20, where it’s been for over a month.

One could argue we’ve simply bounced from extreme oversold conditions. Of course, with China on holiday, that helped take some pressure off the markets.

Crude Oil futures were relatively unchanged this week, as prices are trading slightly above $45 per barrel. Interestingly, we also saw a pop in precious metals futures on Friday. Gold futures traded more than 2% higher.

Earnings season kicks off on Thursday, here’s what else is on tap:

Key Economic Data:
6 October 2015- International Trade 8:30 AM ET
8 October 2015- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET, FOMC Minutes 2 PM ET

Key Earnings:
5 October 2015- TCS
6 October 2015- PEP, YUM
7 October 2015- MON, STZ
8 October 2015- DPZ, AA

Key Events:
5 October 2015 (runs till the 6th)- 18th Annual Cowen Therapeutics Conference
6 October 2015 (runs till the 9th)- Amazon Services Invent Conference

September 8, 2015 The Week Ahead

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September 8, 2015 The Week Ahead

The S&P 500 ended down more than 3%. Poor economic numbers out of the U.S. and China attributed to the weakness. With that said, China has two cracks at the markets before we open, Monday night futures.

Just three weeks ago, the VIX was below 13, but it’s now been three straight Friday’s where it has closed above 25.

Crude Oil futures were relatively flat last week. But, we’re only $7 from the yearly lows.

Now, there isn’t a whole lot on the economic calendar, however; there are a decent amount of industry events that could move individual stocks.

Here’s what else is on the schedule:

Key Economic Data:
10 September 2015- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
11 September 2015- PPI 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
8 September 2015- FCEL, PSUN, PLAY, TIVO
9 September 2015- BKS, CNSI, CONN, FRAN, HOV, KKD, PANW
10 September 2015- LULU, FNSR, RH, ZMZ
11 September 2015- KR, MFRM

Key Events:
8 September 2015 (runs til 9/9)- Barclay’s Back-to-School Consumer Conference
8 September 2015 (runs til 9/9)- Deutsche Bank Aircraft Finance & Leasing Conference
8 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- Barclay’s CEO Energy Power Conference
8 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- Barclay’s Global Consumer Staples Conference
8 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- Citigroup Global Tech Conference
8 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- JPMorgan Small/Mid Cap Conference
8 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference
9 September 2015- Apple Hardware product event.
9 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- Bank of America 2015 Gaming and Lodging Conference
9 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- Bank of America 2015 Media Communications & Equipment Conference
9 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- Cowen Global Transport Conference
9 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- Goldman Sachs Global Retail Conference
9 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference
9 September 2015 (runs til 9/11)- Morgan Stanley Industrial CEO Unplugged Conference
10 September 2015 (runs til 9/11)- Bank of America Annual Canada Mining Conference

September 3, 2015 Market Wrap Up

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September 3, 2015 Market Wrap Up

The S&P 500 was up modestly today, which was expected given that we’ve got a holiday coming up, while China is currently observing their own.

Before the opening bell, the ECB announced that they would be willing to inject further stimulus if there is continued weakness in the global economy. For the most part, the news was perceived as bullish by the market. However, early day gains were given back as we reached the close.

The VIX closed at 25.61, down nearly six points from the first of the month.

The energy sector saw modest recent gains, as the United States Oil Fund (USO) closed 1.67% higher.

Tomorrow is expected to be a slow day, as many traders will be taking part or the entire day off.

But here’s what’s going on:

Key Economic Data:
4 September 2015- Employment Situation 8:30 AM ET

September 1, 2015 Market Wrap Up

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September 1, 2015 Market Wrap Up

The S&P 500 got absolutely smoked today, down nearly 3 percent. The market was weak overnight because of poor data out of China, PMI was worse than expected. Interestingly, the SPY straddle going into Monday was implying a 2.6% move. With that said, not too many traders were expecting this kind of volatility heading into Labor Day.

The VIX closed at 31.40, up more than 10%. Not only that, but the VIX remains in backwardation. This is when near term futures are more expensive than farther dated futures.

VIX Futures Term Structure

The energy sector saw a big sell-off after seeing recent gains. The United States Oil Fund (USO) is down nearly 9%.

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August 31, 2015 The Week Ahead

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August 31, 2015 The Week Ahead

The S&P 500 ended Friday’s action on a mild note, something that was probably unexpected given all the fireworks we had during the week. The market recaptured all of it’s losses from Monday and Tuesday’s sell-off on Wednesday and Thursday. We went from a low of 1867 to closing at nearly 1990. A massive swing in prices and volatility.

Many believe the catalyst was fears of greater weakness out of China. However, over the last few days, it appears that fear was overemphasized.

Just two weeks ago, the VIX was below 13, but it’s now been two straight Friday’s where it has closed above 25.

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August 27, 2015 Market Wrap Up

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August 27, 2015 Market Wrap Up

The S&P 500 showed some nice bounce today after yesterday’s big spike higher. The market jumped after solid GDP numbers; and it’s now up more than 6%, about 150 points away from the yearly highs.

Of course, all eyes will be on China to see how their markets open.

The VIX closed at 26.10, down 13.9%. That’s well off our recent high of 42 and change.

The energy sector saw a huge bounce today. The United States Oil Fund (USO) was up nearly 10%. Is this a dead cat bounce or is the near term bottom in? Only time will tell.

On the options front, we saw bullish call buying in Whiting Petroleum (WLL). We also saw bearish option activity in Wells Fargo Bank (WFC).

In after hours action, activist investor, Carl Icahn disclosed a stake in Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX). The stock is up over 50% in extended hours trading.

Here’s what else is going on:

Key Economic Data:
28 August 2015- Personal Income 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
28 August 2015- BIG

August 25, 2015 Market Wrap Up

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August 25, 2015 Market Wrap Up

The S&P 500 is down nearly 10% over the last few trading sessions. Today’s action was a punch to the gut for all the bulls; nearly an 80 pt swing from high to the low. The market gapped up very strong and stayed there for a good portion of the day. However, it gave it all back by the close.

All eyes will be on China to see how their markets open. They recently decided to cut their key interest rates, which was the catalyst for today’s short-lived rally. Maybe it’s because they’ve cut rates five times since November.

Believe it or not, the VIX dropped, closing at 36.02.

On the options front, we saw bullish call buying in Solar City (SCTY). We also saw bearish option activity in Cheniere Energy (LNG).

Here’s what else is going on:

Key Economic Data:
26 August 2015- Durable Goods 8:30 AM ET
27 August 2015- GDP 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
28 August 2015- Personal Income 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
26 August 2015- EXPR, GES, NQ
27 August 2015- ARO, ADSK, BEBE, BURL, DG, GME, SDRL, GAME, SPLK, TIF, ULTA, VEEV, YGE, TD
28 August 2015- BIG

August 23, 2015 The Week Ahead

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August 23, 2015 The Week Ahead

The S&P 500 ended Friday’s action with a wicked sell-off, dropping more than 3% and over 5% the last two trading days.

A strategy that has worked well over the last couple of years has been to buy the dip. However, every rally on Friday was eventually sold.

What caused this?

Sellers were more aggressive than buyers. It might sound too simple, but there was no real news to justify the move. Of course, that won’t stop the financial press and media try to come up with a reason why.

In any event, global markets now look weak. With Europe, China, and the U.S. now showing signs of slowing down.

Just a week ago, the VIX was below 13, on Friday, it closed at 28.03!

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