Stock Market Watch For the Week of March 11th

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Stocks have hit a cold streak, after soaring for two straight months. That said, they ended the week on a 5-day losing skid.

The catalyst?

Well, it’s hard to say precisely, but here are what some traders believe it is:

  • Profit taking- this has been the best two months start for the S&P 500 since 1991
  • Weak economic data- poor job numbers
  • Weakness in China- poor export numbers
  • Weakness in Europe- ECB lowered growth outlooks
  • Unresolved trade negotiations between the U.S. and China
  • Brexit fears
  • S&P 500 hit key resistance (2800 level)

Are the markets cooling off or is the beginning of a new trend?

We’ll have to continue to monitor the situation, but it doesn’t appear that traders are panicking yet. Furthermore, the VIX, also known as the market’s fear index spiked during the week, as it typically rises when stocks sell-off. On Friday, it closed at 16.05.

graph

Source: Yahoo

Here are how some of the most actively traded index ETFs performing over the week: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) -2.13%; iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) -4.17%; SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) -2.19%; Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) -1.85%

Here are how some of the most actively traded commodity and interest rate ETFs performed: United States Oil Fund (USO) +0.60%; iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) +2.45%; SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) +0.79%

Economic Releases:
11 Mar 2019- Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET

12 Mar 2019- CPI 8:30 AM ET

13 Mar 2019- Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET; PPI-FD 8:30 AM ET; EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET

14 Mar 2019- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET; New Home Sales 10:00 AM ET

15 Mar 2019- Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET

Key Earnings:
11 Mar 2019- ADT, COUP, SFIX

12 Mar 2019- PETX, CLNE, NTRA, PEIX, NOG, BLCM

13 Mar 2019- TRVN, SMTC, MDB, AXAS, VRA

14 Mar 2019- DG, ULTA, XONE, ADBE, AVGO, JBL, ORCL, ZUMZ, PVTL

15 Mar 2019- BKE

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Stock Market Watch For the Week of March 4th

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As the trading month of March kicks off, stocks look to continue their impressive hot streak. It has been reported that this is the best two-month start for the Dow since 2010. While the S&P 500 hasn’t seen a start like this since 1991.

The FOMC’s Powell has helped ease market concerns for further rate hikes this year, which many believe was the catalyst that pushed stocks higher in January. Furthermore, the market is optimistic that a trade resolution between the U.S. and China will happen soon.

It’s another busy week for earnings, this week we’ll be receiving more Q4 results from retailers like Costco, Target, and Urban Outfitters.

However, traders don’t seem bothered with earnings. For example, volatility has gotten crushed since December 24, when the VIX traded above 36. The VIX is currently trading at around 13.54.

graph

Source: Yahoo

Here are how some of the most actively traded index ETFs performing over the week: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) +0.46%, iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) +0.06%, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) +0.10%, Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) +0.87%

Here are how some of the most actively traded commodity and interest rate ETFs performed: United States Oil Fund (USO) -2.43%, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) -2.39%, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) -2.88%

Economic Releases:
5 Mar 2019- New Home Sales 10:00 AM ET

6 Mar 2019- International Trade 8:30 AM ET; EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET

7 Mar 2019- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET

8 Mar 2019- Employment Situation 8:30 AM ET; Housing Starts 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
4 Mar 2019- CRM, LEAF, SD

5 Mar 2019- EGLE, HRZN, UNFI, URBN, VSLR, TGT, KSS, CIEN, AFI

6 Mar 2019- ANF, FVE, MEET, WHF, ABM, AEO

7 Mar 2019- HOV, GNC, KR, COST, TTOO

8 Mar 2019- NAV, MTN

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Stock Market Watch for the Week of February 18th

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Stocks closed the week strong, as the Dow posted its 8th straight weekly gain. That said, we’re entering a busy week of trading, despite the markets being closed on Monday for Presidents Day.

Some of the upcoming highlights this week include the FOMC minutes and jobless claims. And of course, earnings. That said, 46 S&P 500 names report, including CVS and Walmart.

Earnings have been good enough to keep this market pushing higher. However, the Federal Reserve Bank deserves a lot of the credit for this year’s move higher. By letting the market know that the Fed will most likely not raise rates this year, it has given investors confidence.

However, uncertainty remains. Specifically, the U.S.-China trade talks are still very much in the air. If a deal unravels, it could push equities lower.

Volatility has come in a lot since December 24, when the VIX traded above 36. However, it closed at 14.91 on Friday, a sign that traders are becoming complacent once again.

graph
Source: Yahoo

Here are how some of the most actively traded index ETFs performed over the week: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) +2.55%, iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) +4.25%, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) +2.92%, Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) +2.01%

Here are how some of the most actively traded commodity and interest rate ETFs performed: United States Oil Fund (USO) +5.69%, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) -0.30%, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) +0.48%

Economic Releases:
20 Feb 2019- FOMC Minutes 2:00 PM ET

21 Feb 2019- Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET; Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET; Philly Fed Survey 8:30 AM ET; Existing Home Sales 10:00 AM ET; EIA Petroleum Status Report 11:00 AM ET

Key Earnings:
19 Feb 2019- AAP, FDP, GPC, NBL, TEX, TTS, WMT, CDNS, DVN, FANG, FE, FIVN, HST, LZB, LC, RARE

20 Feb 2019- CVS, GCI, HFC, LAMR, NI, OC, SAH, TRGP, CAKE, CAR, CONE, ET, GDDY, IVR, JACK, LASR, SAM, TYL, WPG, Y

21 Feb 2019- BG, ROCK, TTC, VC, VG, WPX, PLAB, PWR, AAOI, EXAS, ZG, STMP, SGMS, ROKU, PRA, OLED, CZR, CUBE, BEAT, WEN, WPX

22 Feb 2019- AN, B, COG, PNW, SNR, W, WPC

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Stock Market Watch for the Week of January 21st

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Stocks remain strong after three weeks of trading. The S&P 500 is up around 14% since December 24th. That said, there is still plenty of uncertainty in the market, including the government shutdown, Brexit, and trade talks between China.

China just posted its GDP numbers for 2018, 6.6% growth, its weakest annual performance since 1990.

However, it hasn’t been all doom and gloom. For example, members of the FOMC continue to come out and assure the market that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates this year. In addition, corporate earnings kicked off last week… and so far so good.

graph

Source: Yahoo

The VIX closed at 17.80 on Friday. A far cry from 36, where it was on Dec 24.

Here are how some of the most actively traded index ETFs performed over the week: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) +2.89%, iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) +2.54%, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) +2.99%, Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) +2.84%

Here are how some of the most actively traded commodity and interest rate ETFs performed: United States Oil Fund (USO) +3.76%, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) -1.13%, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) -0.64%

Economic Releases:
22 Jan 2019- Existing Home Sales 10:00 AM ET

24 Jan 2019- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET; EIA Petroleum Status Report 11:00 AM ET

25 Jan 2019- Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET; Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET; New Home Sales 10:00 AM ET

Key Earnings:
22 Jan 2019- JNJ, HAL, STLD, SWK, UBS, AMTD, IBM, NAVI, ZION

23 Jan 2019- CMCSA, KMB, NTRS, PG, RES, WAT, CCI, F, FFIV, XLNX

24 Jan 2019- FCX, HBAN, JBLU, LUV, STM, TXT, UNP, DFS, NSC, SBUX, WDC

25 Jan 2019- APD, CL, LEA, SYF

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Week of January 14th Stock Market Watch

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Two weeks in, and the stock market is off to an impressive start to the year, led by the Russell 2000 which is up over 7% year-to-date. That said, all major stock indices are positive in 2019. However, the true test comes now, as we enter earnings season.

Big Stories from last week:

  • The government remains shutdown
  • Fed Chairman Powell reassured Wall Street that he’ll remain patient about raising rates
  • Oil prices continue to rally, 9/10 winning days
  • Trade talks between the US and China keep moving slowly

That said, a lot of the major fears we had right before Christmas, seem to be subsiding.

graph

Source: Yahoo

The VIX closed at 18.19 on Friday. A far cry from 36, where it was on Dec 24.

Here are how some of the most actively traded index ETFs performed over the week: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) +2.6%, iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) +4.73%, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) +2.39%, Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) +2.85%

Here are how some of the most actively traded commodity and interest rate ETFs performed: United States Oil Fund (USO) +7.07%, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) -0.97%, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) +0.30%

Economic Releases:
15 Jan 2019- PPI 8:30 AM ET

16 Jan 2019- Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET; EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET

17 Jan 2019- Housing Starts 8:30 AM ET; Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET; Philly Fed Survey 8:30 AM ET

18 Jan 2019- Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET

Key Earnings:
15 Jan 2019- DAL, JPM, UNH, WFC, UAL

16 Jan 2019- BAC, BK, GS, USB, SCHW, CSX, AA

17 Jan 2019- FAST, KEYS, TSM, AXP, NFLX, JBHT, OZK, RIO

18 Jan 2019- KSU, SLB, VFC, STT, RFF

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Week of January 7th Stock Market Watch

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Stocks closed their first week of 2019 in positive territory. However, they needed a heroic effort, in which they got on Friday, with the Dow rising 746 points and the Nasdaq surging by 275 points.

The catalyst?

The Fed, of course. In an interview on Friday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, said the Fed will remain patient regarding further rate hikes.

Despite the positive news. There is still uncertainty in the market. For example, the government is still shut down.

trump wall
Source: twitter

Also, the market is concerned about how trade talks between the US and China turn out. A trade war could weaken markets, while a resolution could lift them higher.

That said, there seems to be less fear in the market, thanks to Powell’s interview. The VIX closed at 21.38 on Friday. That’s a drop of 24.5% from last week.

Here are how some of the most actively traded index ETFs performed over the week: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) +1.74%, iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) +3.56%, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) +1.31%, Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) +2.08%

Here are how some of the most actively traded commodity and interest rate ETFs performed: United States Oil Fund (USO) +5.82%, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) +1.72%, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) +0.72%

Economic Releases:
8 Jan 2019- International Trade 8:30 AM ET

9 Jan 2019- EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET; FOMC Minutes 2:00 PM ET

10 Jan 2019- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET; Jerome Powell Speaks 12:45 PM ET

11 Jan 2019- CPI 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
7 Jan 2019- JAGX

8 Jan 2019- HELE, AZZ, LNN, SGH

9 Jan 2019- AYI, GBX, LEN, MSM, STZ, SCHN, BBBY, FC, KBH, PSMT

10 Jan 2019- DAL, FCEL, SNX

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Week of December 31st Stock Market Watch

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There is just one more trading day left in what has been a wild ride for stocks this December. Typically, when we get close to year-end, trading volume and volatility dies down. However, that has not been the case this year. In fact, the day after Christmas the Dow had its largest gain in history (+1,000 pts). Despite the gains stocks had after Christmas, they still finished relatively flat on the week.

Here are some of the main concerns investors are having right now:

  • The government shutdown
  • Rising interest rates
  • Trade disputes with China (tariffs)
  • Fears of an economic downturn
  • Loss of confidence in the Federal Reserve Bank
  • Crashing oil prices
  • Uncertainty with Brexit

The VIX closed at 28.34 on Friday. That said, traders appear to embracing the shift from low volatility to high.

Here are how some of the most actively traded index ETFs performed over the week: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) +0.23%, iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) +0.81%, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) +0.69%, Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) +0.45%

Here are how some of the most actively traded commodity and interest rate ETFs performed: United States Oil Fund (USO) -1.95%, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) +0.26%, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) +1.53%

This is a shortened week for the stock market, as it’s closed on New Years Day.

Economic Releases:
3 Jan 2019- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET; ISM Manufacturing Index 10:00 AM ET

4 Jan 2019- Employment Situation 8:30 AM ET; EIA Petroleum Status Report 11:00 AM ET

Key Earnings:
3 Jan 2019- RECN

4 Jan 2019- LW

From all of us at TVC, have a happy, healthy, and profitable New Year.

Week of December 17th Stock Market Watch

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Stocks came under heavy selling pressure on Friday, as they closed lower for the second straight week. Traders and investors are concerned about the trade dispute between China and the U.S., rising interest rates, and fears of a U.S. government shutdown. Other concerns include the U.K. Brexit vote, and Italy’s budget issues.

Small cap stocks were among the weakest, as the Russell 2000 Index hit 52-week lows.
Among the losers included: Wells Fargo -7.4%, FedEx -8.58%, Best Buy -8.6%, and Tilray -25.06%. However, not all stocks performed poorly. For example, winners included: Twitter +9.26%, Facebook +4.83%, and Huya +24.83%

The VIX closed at 21.63 on Friday. A sign that traders have a concern, but nowhere near panic levels, which would be anything above 30.

graph

Crude oil futures prices are starting to stabilize near $50; they closed at $51.40 on Friday. That’s well off it’s October highs of $76.39.

Here are how some of the most actively traded commodity and interest rate ETFs performed: United States Oil Fund (USO) -2.61%, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) +0.06%, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) -0.87%

The number one event traders will focus on next week will be the FOMC Meeting Announcement, held on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to raise rates at the meeting. However, everyone will be listening to its forecast, and the Fed Chair press conference, held right after the announcement, for further clues on what the Fed does next.

Economic Releases:
18 Dec 2018- Housing Starts 8:30 AM ET

19 Dec 2018- Existing Home Sales 10:00 AM ET; EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET; FOMC Meeting Announcement 2:00 PM ET

20 Dec 2018- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET; Philly Fed Business Survey 8:30 AM ET

21 Dec 2018- Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET; GDP 8:30 AM ET; Personal Income and Outlays 10:00 AM ET

Key Earnings:
17 Dec 2018- LAKE, ORCL, RHT

18 Dec 2018- NAV, FDS, DRI, FDX, JBL, MU, SCS

19 Dec 2018- GIS, PAYX, PIR, RAD

20 Dec 2018- APOG, ATU, CAG, SAFM, WBA, NKE, CAMP

21 Dec 2018- KMX

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Week of December 10th Stock Market Watch

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Stocks suffered significant losses over the week, as market sentiment turns bearish. The Nasdaq fell by more than 4%, the S&P 500 and Dow each lost more than 3.5% on the week. Among the losers included: Bank of America -9.3%, Apple -6.1%, Ulta Beauty -15.2%, and Square -13.05%.

The trade war between the U.S. and China, and the fear of more interest rate hikes are some of the reasons why stocks have been selling off.

However, it comes after Fed President Jerome Powell publicly saying that interest rates are just below neutral, and China and the U.S. announcing a temporary trade truce. That said, with the yield curve flattening, traders can expect to see more volatility.

The VIX closed at 23.23 on Friday.

graph

In commodity news, OPEC announced that it would be cutting oil production, a move that should keep prices stable after declining to nearly $50 per barrel.

Here are how some of the most actively traded commodity and interest rate ETFs performed: United States Oil Fund (USO) +2.21%, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) +3.05%. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) +2.03%

Economic Releases:
11 Dec 2018- PPI-FD 8:30 AM ET

12 Dec 2018- CPI 8:30 AM ET; EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET

13 Dec 2018- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET

14 Dec 2018- Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET; Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET

Key Earnings:
10 Dec 2018- SFIX, ASNA, CASY, SEAC

11 Dec 2018- DSW, FRAN, AEO, PLAY, PWOL, PVTL

12 Dec 2018- PLAB, VRA, TLRD, NCS, OXM

13 Dec 2018- CIEN, FRED, VNCE, ADBE, COST, LRAD

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Week of December 3rd Stock Market Watch

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All three major stock indices posted large gains this week, led by the Nasdaq which surged by more than 6%. After a brutal October, stock investors are starting to get optimistic again. Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish comments lifted stocks higher.

The market has been declining on fears that further rate hikes will slow down the economy, but Powell’s comments helped calm those fears when he said that interest rates are just below level.

Another cloud that has been hanging over stocks has been the ongoing “trade war” between the U.S. and China. That said, over the weekend leaders from both countries met at the G20 meeting, and agreed to a ceasefire. Futures on Sunday are reacting very well to the news.

The VIX is back below 20 now, closing at 18.07 on Friday. It should continue to decline now that fears of a trade war have subsided.

graph

Here are how some of the most actively traded commodity and interest rate ETFs performed: United States Oil Fund (USO) -0.92%, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) +0.17%, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) -0.20%

The stock market will be closed on Wednesday, in honor of the passing of former President of the United States, George H.W. Bush.

Economic Releases:
3 Dec 2018- ISM Manufacturing 10:00 AM ET

5 Dec 2018- EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET

6 Dec 2018- International Trade 8:30 AM ET; Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET

7 Dec 2018- Employment Situation 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
3 Dec 2018- FNSR, COUP

4 Dec 2018- BMO, AZO, CONN, DG, MOV, HOME, HPE, MDB, MRVL, RH, TOL, ZS

5 Dec 2018- AEO, MOMO, CLDR, FIVE, HRB, LULU, SNPS, UNFI, VRNT

6 Dec 2018- KR, MIK, SIG, THO, TTC, AOBC, SAIC, ULTA, GCO, SAIC

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