Stock Market Watch For the Week of March 11th

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Stocks have hit a cold streak, after soaring for two straight months. That said, they ended the week on a 5-day losing skid.

The catalyst?

Well, it’s hard to say precisely, but here are what some traders believe it is:

  • Profit taking- this has been the best two months start for the S&P 500 since 1991
  • Weak economic data- poor job numbers
  • Weakness in China- poor export numbers
  • Weakness in Europe- ECB lowered growth outlooks
  • Unresolved trade negotiations between the U.S. and China
  • Brexit fears
  • S&P 500 hit key resistance (2800 level)

Are the markets cooling off or is the beginning of a new trend?

We’ll have to continue to monitor the situation, but it doesn’t appear that traders are panicking yet. Furthermore, the VIX, also known as the market’s fear index spiked during the week, as it typically rises when stocks sell-off. On Friday, it closed at 16.05.

graph

Source: Yahoo

Here are how some of the most actively traded index ETFs performing over the week: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) -2.13%; iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) -4.17%; SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) -2.19%; Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) -1.85%

Here are how some of the most actively traded commodity and interest rate ETFs performed: United States Oil Fund (USO) +0.60%; iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) +2.45%; SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) +0.79%

Economic Releases:
11 Mar 2019- Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET

12 Mar 2019- CPI 8:30 AM ET

13 Mar 2019- Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET; PPI-FD 8:30 AM ET; EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET

14 Mar 2019- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET; New Home Sales 10:00 AM ET

15 Mar 2019- Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET

Key Earnings:
11 Mar 2019- ADT, COUP, SFIX

12 Mar 2019- PETX, CLNE, NTRA, PEIX, NOG, BLCM

13 Mar 2019- TRVN, SMTC, MDB, AXAS, VRA

14 Mar 2019- DG, ULTA, XONE, ADBE, AVGO, JBL, ORCL, ZUMZ, PVTL

15 Mar 2019- BKE

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Stock Market Watch for the Week of January 21st

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Stocks remain strong after three weeks of trading. The S&P 500 is up around 14% since December 24th. That said, there is still plenty of uncertainty in the market, including the government shutdown, Brexit, and trade talks between China.

China just posted its GDP numbers for 2018, 6.6% growth, its weakest annual performance since 1990.

However, it hasn’t been all doom and gloom. For example, members of the FOMC continue to come out and assure the market that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates this year. In addition, corporate earnings kicked off last week… and so far so good.

graph

Source: Yahoo

The VIX closed at 17.80 on Friday. A far cry from 36, where it was on Dec 24.

Here are how some of the most actively traded index ETFs performed over the week: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) +2.89%, iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) +2.54%, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) +2.99%, Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) +2.84%

Here are how some of the most actively traded commodity and interest rate ETFs performed: United States Oil Fund (USO) +3.76%, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) -1.13%, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) -0.64%

Economic Releases:
22 Jan 2019- Existing Home Sales 10:00 AM ET

24 Jan 2019- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET; EIA Petroleum Status Report 11:00 AM ET

25 Jan 2019- Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET; Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET; New Home Sales 10:00 AM ET

Key Earnings:
22 Jan 2019- JNJ, HAL, STLD, SWK, UBS, AMTD, IBM, NAVI, ZION

23 Jan 2019- CMCSA, KMB, NTRS, PG, RES, WAT, CCI, F, FFIV, XLNX

24 Jan 2019- FCX, HBAN, JBLU, LUV, STM, TXT, UNP, DFS, NSC, SBUX, WDC

25 Jan 2019- APD, CL, LEA, SYF

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Week of December 31st Stock Market Watch

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There is just one more trading day left in what has been a wild ride for stocks this December. Typically, when we get close to year-end, trading volume and volatility dies down. However, that has not been the case this year. In fact, the day after Christmas the Dow had its largest gain in history (+1,000 pts). Despite the gains stocks had after Christmas, they still finished relatively flat on the week.

Here are some of the main concerns investors are having right now:

  • The government shutdown
  • Rising interest rates
  • Trade disputes with China (tariffs)
  • Fears of an economic downturn
  • Loss of confidence in the Federal Reserve Bank
  • Crashing oil prices
  • Uncertainty with Brexit

The VIX closed at 28.34 on Friday. That said, traders appear to embracing the shift from low volatility to high.

Here are how some of the most actively traded index ETFs performed over the week: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) +0.23%, iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) +0.81%, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) +0.69%, Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) +0.45%

Here are how some of the most actively traded commodity and interest rate ETFs performed: United States Oil Fund (USO) -1.95%, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) +0.26%, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) +1.53%

This is a shortened week for the stock market, as it’s closed on New Years Day.

Economic Releases:
3 Jan 2019- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET; ISM Manufacturing Index 10:00 AM ET

4 Jan 2019- Employment Situation 8:30 AM ET; EIA Petroleum Status Report 11:00 AM ET

Key Earnings:
3 Jan 2019- RECN

4 Jan 2019- LW

From all of us at TVC, have a happy, healthy, and profitable New Year.

Week of December 17th Stock Market Watch

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Stocks came under heavy selling pressure on Friday, as they closed lower for the second straight week. Traders and investors are concerned about the trade dispute between China and the U.S., rising interest rates, and fears of a U.S. government shutdown. Other concerns include the U.K. Brexit vote, and Italy’s budget issues.

Small cap stocks were among the weakest, as the Russell 2000 Index hit 52-week lows.
Among the losers included: Wells Fargo -7.4%, FedEx -8.58%, Best Buy -8.6%, and Tilray -25.06%. However, not all stocks performed poorly. For example, winners included: Twitter +9.26%, Facebook +4.83%, and Huya +24.83%

The VIX closed at 21.63 on Friday. A sign that traders have a concern, but nowhere near panic levels, which would be anything above 30.

graph

Crude oil futures prices are starting to stabilize near $50; they closed at $51.40 on Friday. That’s well off it’s October highs of $76.39.

Here are how some of the most actively traded commodity and interest rate ETFs performed: United States Oil Fund (USO) -2.61%, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) +0.06%, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) -0.87%

The number one event traders will focus on next week will be the FOMC Meeting Announcement, held on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to raise rates at the meeting. However, everyone will be listening to its forecast, and the Fed Chair press conference, held right after the announcement, for further clues on what the Fed does next.

Economic Releases:
18 Dec 2018- Housing Starts 8:30 AM ET

19 Dec 2018- Existing Home Sales 10:00 AM ET; EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET; FOMC Meeting Announcement 2:00 PM ET

20 Dec 2018- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET; Philly Fed Business Survey 8:30 AM ET

21 Dec 2018- Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET; GDP 8:30 AM ET; Personal Income and Outlays 10:00 AM ET

Key Earnings:
17 Dec 2018- LAKE, ORCL, RHT

18 Dec 2018- NAV, FDS, DRI, FDX, JBL, MU, SCS

19 Dec 2018- GIS, PAYX, PIR, RAD

20 Dec 2018- APOG, ATU, CAG, SAFM, WBA, NKE, CAMP

21 Dec 2018- KMX

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June 28, 2016 Market Wrap Up

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The S&P 500 caught its first bounce after the Brexit announcement, as it closed up more than 35 points, a gain of nearly 1.8%. Not only that, but the VIX came under attack as it dropped more than 20% and closing below 19.

Stocks in play today include: comScore, Inc (SCOR) $23.83 (-18.96%), Dow Chemical Company (DOW) $48.50 (-2.04%), PayPal Holdings (PYPL) $35.24 (+3%), and Splunk, Inc. (SPLK) $53.34 (+4.65%).

Despite the anemic volume, the VIX actually grinded up, closing at 14.64.

Crude oil futures closed about %3 higher at $47.85.

On the options front, we saw large call buying activity in Travelport Worldwide Limited (TVPT), which traded 8.1 times normal volume. We also saw a ton of bearish bets being placed in Clovis Oncology Inc (CLVS), which traded 2.2 times usual volume.

Here’s what’s left for the rest of the week:

Key Economic Data:
29 June 2016- Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 AM ET, EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
30 June 2016- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
01 July 2016- ISM Mfg Index 10:00 AM ET

Key Earnings:
29 June 2016- GIS, MON, PIR
30 June 2016- CAG, DRI, LNN, STZ, MU, MKC

Key Events:
JPMorgan Media & Telecoms CEO Conference (runs till 6/29)

June 27, 2016 The Week Ahead

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The S&P 500 was under attack on Friday after a surprise vote out of Britain as they chose to leave the EU. Going into Friday, the option market was implying a 1.6%, however; The S&P 500 sold off more than 3.59%, which demonstrates how much traders underestimated the risk. Overall, the S&P 500 finished the week down 1.57%.

It appears that there are fears that other EU countries might follow in the footsteps as the Brits. With that said, traders were flocking towards safe havens like Gold and Treasury Bonds. Gold futures rose to their highest levels in 2 years, as they surged more than $55 and closed above 1315. In addition, The iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bond (ETF) gained more than 3.5 pts as it closed at 135.78, a move of 2.68%.

The VIX on Friday closed at 25.76, a massive jump of more than 8 points, a gain of nearly 50%.

The United States Oil Fund (USO) was also a victim of the Brexit vote, as it sold off nearly 5% on Friday, closing at 11.40.

Here is what is on tap for this upcoming week:

Key Economic Data:
27 June 2016- International Trade in Goods 8:30 AM ET
28 June 2016- GDP 8:30 AM ET
29 June 2016- Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 AM ET, EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
30 June 2016- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
01 July 2016- ISM Mfg Index 10:00 AM ET

Key Earnings:
28 June 2016- NKE, CAMP, CCL, FDS
29 June 2016- GIS, MON, PIR
30 June 2016- CAG, DRI, LNN, STZ, MU, MKC

Key Events:
27 June 2016- JPMorgan Inaugural Energy Conference (runs till 6/28)
28 June 2016- JPMorgan Media & Telecoms CEO Conference (runs till 6/29)