September 14, 2015 The Week Ahead

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September 14, 2015 The Week Ahead

The S&P 500 ended the week slightly higher, however; all eyes will be on the FOMC meeting, which is on Thursday. With that said, the markets might trade choppy on light volume. In addition, the Jewish New Year, begins Sunday night and ends Tuesday night.

It’s now been four straight Friday’s where the VIX has closed above 23.

Crude Oil futures were relatively flat last week. But, we’re less than $7 from the multi-year lows.

Here’s what else is on the schedule:

Key Economic Data:
15 September 2015- Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET, Industrial Production 9:15 AM
16 September 2015- Consumer Price Index 8:30 AM ET
17 September 2015- Housing Starts 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET, Philly Fed Survey 10:00 AM ET, FOMC Meeting Announcement 2:00 PM ET, FOMC Forecasts 2:00 PM, Fed Chair Press Conference 2:30 PM ET

Key Earnings:
16 September 2015- ARCW, ASNA, CBRL, FDX, ORCL
17 September 2015- ADBE, RAD

September 10, 2015 Market Wrap Up

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September 10, 2015 Market Wrap Up

The S&P 500 finished the day higher after experiencing a great deal of volatility. We went from positive to negative and then back positive. The market actually gapped up overnight, however; it lost a lot of steam. Especially, when rockstar hedge fund manager David Tepper got on CNBC and made some rather bearish comments about the market.

For now, it seems like the weight of what happens in the Asian markets have had less of an influence. Possibly because we’ve got an FOMC meeting next week. It appears that the market is waiting to hear what their next move will be.

The VIX closed at 24.37, down nearly two points on the day.

The energy sector caught a nice bounce, as the United States Oil Fund (USO) closed nearly 3% higher.

On the options front, we saw bullish call buying in Avon Products (AVP). Options that saw bearish put buying were in Ball Corporation (BLL).

Here’s what’s going on for tomorrow:

Key Economic Data:
11 September 2015- PPI 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
11 September 2015- KR, MFRM

Key Events:
Morgan Stanley Industrial CEO Unplugged Conference
Bank of America Annual Canada Mining Conference

September 9, 2015 Market Wrap Up

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September 9, 2015 Market Wrap Up

The S&P 500 was not able to follow through after yesterday’s move higher. Now, for a large part of the day it looked like it was going to be smooth sailing; however, when it was all said and done we witnessed a 40 point swing with the market closing nearly 1.5% lower.

For some time, our focus has been on the Asian markets. They’ve had a huge influence on how we’ve traded here. In addition, the FED meeting is coming up in about a week or two. With that said, that’s what traders are waiting and watching.

The VIX closed at 26.23, up nearly five points from the day low.

The energy sector saw some heavy selling pressure, as the United States Oil Fund (USO) closed 3.4% higher.

On the options front, we saw bullish call buying in Autodesk Inc. (ADSK). Options that saw bearish put buying were in Tenet Healthcare (THC).

Here’s what’s going on for the rest of the week:

Key Economic Data:
10 September 2015- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
11 September 2015- PPI 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
10 September 2015- LULU, FNSR, RH, ZMZ
11 September 2015- KR, MFRM

Key Events:
8 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- Barclay’s CEO Energy Power Conference
8 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- Barclay’s Global Consumer Staples Conference
8 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- Citigroup Global Tech Conference
8 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- JPMorgan Small/Mid Cap Conference
8 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference
9 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- Bank of America 2015 Gaming and Lodging Conference
9 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- Bank of America 2015 Media Communications & Equipment Conference
9 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- Cowen Global Transport Conference
9 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- Goldman Sachs Global Retail Conference
9 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference
9 September 2015 (runs til 9/11)- Morgan Stanley Industrial CEO Unplugged Conference
10 September 2015 (runs til 9/11)- Bank of America Annual Canada Mining Conference

September 8, 2015 The Week Ahead

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September 8, 2015 The Week Ahead

The S&P 500 ended down more than 3%. Poor economic numbers out of the U.S. and China attributed to the weakness. With that said, China has two cracks at the markets before we open, Monday night futures.

Just three weeks ago, the VIX was below 13, but it’s now been three straight Friday’s where it has closed above 25.

Crude Oil futures were relatively flat last week. But, we’re only $7 from the yearly lows.

Now, there isn’t a whole lot on the economic calendar, however; there are a decent amount of industry events that could move individual stocks.

Here’s what else is on the schedule:

Key Economic Data:
10 September 2015- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
11 September 2015- PPI 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
8 September 2015- FCEL, PSUN, PLAY, TIVO
9 September 2015- BKS, CNSI, CONN, FRAN, HOV, KKD, PANW
10 September 2015- LULU, FNSR, RH, ZMZ
11 September 2015- KR, MFRM

Key Events:
8 September 2015 (runs til 9/9)- Barclay’s Back-to-School Consumer Conference
8 September 2015 (runs til 9/9)- Deutsche Bank Aircraft Finance & Leasing Conference
8 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- Barclay’s CEO Energy Power Conference
8 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- Barclay’s Global Consumer Staples Conference
8 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- Citigroup Global Tech Conference
8 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- JPMorgan Small/Mid Cap Conference
8 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference
9 September 2015- Apple Hardware product event.
9 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- Bank of America 2015 Gaming and Lodging Conference
9 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- Bank of America 2015 Media Communications & Equipment Conference
9 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- Cowen Global Transport Conference
9 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- Goldman Sachs Global Retail Conference
9 September 2015 (runs til 9/10)- Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference
9 September 2015 (runs til 9/11)- Morgan Stanley Industrial CEO Unplugged Conference
10 September 2015 (runs til 9/11)- Bank of America Annual Canada Mining Conference

September 3, 2015 Market Wrap Up

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September 3, 2015 Market Wrap Up

The S&P 500 was up modestly today, which was expected given that we’ve got a holiday coming up, while China is currently observing their own.

Before the opening bell, the ECB announced that they would be willing to inject further stimulus if there is continued weakness in the global economy. For the most part, the news was perceived as bullish by the market. However, early day gains were given back as we reached the close.

The VIX closed at 25.61, down nearly six points from the first of the month.

The energy sector saw modest recent gains, as the United States Oil Fund (USO) closed 1.67% higher.

Tomorrow is expected to be a slow day, as many traders will be taking part or the entire day off.

But here’s what’s going on:

Key Economic Data:
4 September 2015- Employment Situation 8:30 AM ET

September 1, 2015 Market Wrap Up

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September 1, 2015 Market Wrap Up

The S&P 500 got absolutely smoked today, down nearly 3 percent. The market was weak overnight because of poor data out of China, PMI was worse than expected. Interestingly, the SPY straddle going into Monday was implying a 2.6% move. With that said, not too many traders were expecting this kind of volatility heading into Labor Day.

The VIX closed at 31.40, up more than 10%. Not only that, but the VIX remains in backwardation. This is when near term futures are more expensive than farther dated futures.

VIX Futures Term Structure

The energy sector saw a big sell-off after seeing recent gains. The United States Oil Fund (USO) is down nearly 9%.

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August 31, 2015 The Week Ahead

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August 31, 2015 The Week Ahead

The S&P 500 ended Friday’s action on a mild note, something that was probably unexpected given all the fireworks we had during the week. The market recaptured all of it’s losses from Monday and Tuesday’s sell-off on Wednesday and Thursday. We went from a low of 1867 to closing at nearly 1990. A massive swing in prices and volatility.

Many believe the catalyst was fears of greater weakness out of China. However, over the last few days, it appears that fear was overemphasized.

Just two weeks ago, the VIX was below 13, but it’s now been two straight Friday’s where it has closed above 25.

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August 27, 2015 Market Wrap Up

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August 27, 2015 Market Wrap Up

The S&P 500 showed some nice bounce today after yesterday’s big spike higher. The market jumped after solid GDP numbers; and it’s now up more than 6%, about 150 points away from the yearly highs.

Of course, all eyes will be on China to see how their markets open.

The VIX closed at 26.10, down 13.9%. That’s well off our recent high of 42 and change.

The energy sector saw a huge bounce today. The United States Oil Fund (USO) was up nearly 10%. Is this a dead cat bounce or is the near term bottom in? Only time will tell.

On the options front, we saw bullish call buying in Whiting Petroleum (WLL). We also saw bearish option activity in Wells Fargo Bank (WFC).

In after hours action, activist investor, Carl Icahn disclosed a stake in Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX). The stock is up over 50% in extended hours trading.

Here’s what else is going on:

Key Economic Data:
28 August 2015- Personal Income 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
28 August 2015- BIG

August 25, 2015 Market Wrap Up

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August 25, 2015 Market Wrap Up

The S&P 500 is down nearly 10% over the last few trading sessions. Today’s action was a punch to the gut for all the bulls; nearly an 80 pt swing from high to the low. The market gapped up very strong and stayed there for a good portion of the day. However, it gave it all back by the close.

All eyes will be on China to see how their markets open. They recently decided to cut their key interest rates, which was the catalyst for today’s short-lived rally. Maybe it’s because they’ve cut rates five times since November.

Believe it or not, the VIX dropped, closing at 36.02.

On the options front, we saw bullish call buying in Solar City (SCTY). We also saw bearish option activity in Cheniere Energy (LNG).

Here’s what else is going on:

Key Economic Data:
26 August 2015- Durable Goods 8:30 AM ET
27 August 2015- GDP 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
28 August 2015- Personal Income 8:30 AM ET

Key Earnings:
26 August 2015- EXPR, GES, NQ
27 August 2015- ARO, ADSK, BEBE, BURL, DG, GME, SDRL, GAME, SPLK, TIF, ULTA, VEEV, YGE, TD
28 August 2015- BIG

August 23, 2015 The Week Ahead

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August 23, 2015 The Week Ahead

The S&P 500 ended Friday’s action with a wicked sell-off, dropping more than 3% and over 5% the last two trading days.

A strategy that has worked well over the last couple of years has been to buy the dip. However, every rally on Friday was eventually sold.

What caused this?

Sellers were more aggressive than buyers. It might sound too simple, but there was no real news to justify the move. Of course, that won’t stop the financial press and media try to come up with a reason why.

In any event, global markets now look weak. With Europe, China, and the U.S. now showing signs of slowing down.

Just a week ago, the VIX was below 13, on Friday, it closed at 28.03!

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